One of the objectives of the survey is to study the willingness of the men in Russia to participate in the SMO. Under this study setup, willingness should be taken to mean the respondent’s subjective assessment of the likelihood of signing the contract within the next three months to participate in the Ukraine hostilities.
In the first part of the survey, respondents were asked to answer “yes” or “no” to the following questions:
- Are you considering potential participation in the SMO by signing a contract with MoD? Yes/No.
- What factors might convince you to participate in the SMO?
- Family members’ opinion? Yes/No.
- Opinion of those currently participating in the SMO? Yes/No.
- Payment rates for participation in the SMO? Yes/No.
Based on the analysis of the respondents’ answers to these questions, we could break the sample down into four segments (Table 1).
The three variables — family members’ opinion, opinion of the SMO participants, and payment — are defined as “conditions” or “incentives” that, if favorable, may nudge the respondent toward participating in the SMO.
Favorable outcomes are understood as approving or supportive opinions from family or SMO participants, as well as an increase in payment.
This classification covered 1,996 respondent questionnaires, with four additional questionnaires excluded from any filtered category due to missing responses. Over half of the respondents, 54%, stated their unwillingness to participate in the SMO under the contract (Fig. 5). A notable segment, 17%, indicated a potential willingness to join the SMO if at least one incentive was favorable: either family approval, an endorsement from SMO participants, or a satisfactory payment amount (or any combination of two or all three incentives). Furthermore, 13.2% of the respondents considered unconditional participation as a possibility, meaning before monetary and other incentives were mentioned. Lastly, 16% of the respondents are either former or current SMO participants.
Segment 1. Among the 16% of respondents who are current SMO participants or veterans, there is substantial potential for continuing the contract service: of the 325 respondents who are currently or were previously engaged in the SMO, 184 respondents, or 57%, stated their willingness to extend their contract.
The 16% result is significantly higher than the actual situation, as estimates of the proportion of Russian men currently participating in the SMO do not exceed 3% of men aged 18–60. There are two explanations for such deviation: (a) a substantial portion of respondents interpret the term “participating in the SMO” quite broadly, often including various logistical and support units, as well as positions in law enforcement agencies that do not involve direct presence in the conflict zone. This is further supported by the fact that some respondents identifying as SMO participants reported incomes noticeably lower than those typically received by active combatants; (b) the survey was conducted primarily in transportation hubs, where individuals involved in military actions are likely to travel between regions more frequently than the average Russian citizen, for purposes such as leave, medical treatment, training, among others.
Segment 2. The 13% who answered affirmatively to the question about the willingness to join the SMO under the contract, prior to discussing any conditions, are considered the core of the “willing to fight” category in this study. This segment was not asked about incentives that might nudge them toward participating but was surveyed on their desired payment rates.
Segment 4. The 54% who expressed an unconditional unwillingness to participate were additionally asked about the potential participation of people close to them, such as friends, colleagues, or acquaintances, in the SMO. (The question asked was: “Do you think your friends/colleagues/family members might consider participating in the SMO?”). Among the 1,081 respondents who ruled out personal participation, 45% indicated that their close contacts might be willing to join.
Segment 3. This segment is central to the analysis in this study, as the responses of “conditionally willing” respondents provide key insights into the motivations of Russian men to participate in combat.
When examining the responses of those conditionally willing to join the SMO, it is important to note that the questions regarding the incentives were not mutually exclusive; respondents could say yes to two or even all three incentives. Among those conditionally willing to participate, the opinion of current SMO participants emerged as the most influential incentive, with 254 positive responses, representing 78% of this group (Fig. 6).
The second most popular response was the payment rate, suggesting that a pay raise for the SMO participants could make one decide to join the SMO under the contract. In this regard, 159 respondents, or 49% of the “conditionally willing” segment, acknowledged that this incentive might impact their decision to join. Lastly, 138 respondents indicated that the opinion of their family members could also tip their decision in favor of joining the SMO, representing 42% of the “conditionally willing” group.
An additional analysis was conducted into the responses of the 171 conditionally willing respondents who identified only one incentive that might sway them to join the SMO. Among them:
- 41 respondents, or 13%, reported an increase in payment for the SMO personnel as the sole incentive.
- 52 respondents, or 16%, mentioned the opinion of their relatives as the only condition.
- 78 respondents, or 24%, viewed the opinion of boots on the ground as the single condition that could influence their willingness to join the SMO.
Thus, in both exclusive and non-exclusive analysis of incentives, there is a clear predominance of ideological motivations rather than monetary incentives influencing the willingness to join the SMO.
Willingness to join the SMO by income level. A segment-based analysis of the attitudes toward the participation in the SMO shows a predominance of middle- and high-income demographics, especially among the former and current SMO personnel (Segment 1, Fig. 7).
Based on the statistical significance testing (chi-square test using Pearson’s criterion at a 5% significance level with three degrees of freedom), a statistically significant association was found between the income level and the likelihood of being classified in either the SMO personnel segment (Segment 1) or the “unwilling” Segment 4, Table 2). No statistically significant association was identified for segments 2 and 3. If one’s income does not affect their willingness to join the SMO, financial incentives are also unlikely to play a decisive role. This finding is consistent with the previously observed predominance of moral incentives (opinion of family members and active SMO personnel) as a key driver of participation in the SMO. While this result can be partially attributed to the social desirability bias, moral incentives appear to genuinely have significant importance for a substantial share of respondents across various income groups.
The chi-square test result for Segment 1 confirms a statistically significant association between the income and the participation in the SMO. An additional visual analysis of deviations from expected to actual frequencies provides insights into the direction of these significant relationships (Appendix 2, Table 3). Evidently, the SMO personnel are more likely than other segments to have incomes of upward of 100,000 rubles, suggesting the emergence of a new demographic — current and former SMO personnel — whose income levels exceed the per-capita average across Russian regions. Despite the risks, these men demonstrate a high willingness to maintain their status: 57% of the surveyed SMO personnel reported their willingness to extend their contracts with MoD. Further testing of the association between the income and the willingness to extend the contract showed that higher-income SMO personnel are more likely to express a desire to extend their contract than those from lower-income demographics (Appendix 2, Tables 5 and 6).
The statistically significant association for the “unwilling under any conditions” Segment 4 requires a careful interpretation. Additional visual analysis of the deviation between the expected and actual frequencies shows a direct correlation between the willingness and the income, but only for the extreme income categories (Appendix 2, Table 4). Respondents with the lowest in-comes are more likely to refuse participation, while those with higher incomes are found less in this segment, which indicates that they are more likely to be willing to join. The middle-income categories do not demonstrate a clear trend. Therefore, there is insufficient evidence to infer that the willingness to join decreases with higher income.
Among those considering joining the SMO under certain conditions, such as opinions of their relatives or SMO personnel or the pay rates, an important trend is that the income level does not affect their preference for any of these three incentives (Appendix 2, Table 7). In other words, regardless of the income, respondents may prioritize either material or ideological incentives for joining the SMO.
Willingness to join the SMO by age. The chi-square analysis confirmed the statistical significance of the likelihood of being part of a category based on the age for segments 1, 2, and 4 (Appendix 2, Table 8). However, the direction of this relationship requires interpretation based on the analysis in Fig. 8. First, an unconditional willingness to join the SMO is more prevalent among older age brackets. Specifically, the unconditionally willing respondents dominate the age groups 40–44 and 50–59. Although they also make the most in the 18–19 age bracket, it is offset by the respondents aged between 20 and 24, who largely claim they are unwilling to join under any conditions.
Earlier sociological studies have demonstrated a reliable association between the survey-takers’ age and their support for the SMO1 . Higher approval rates among older generations likely act as a significant ideological factor behind their greater unconditional willingness to join. This may also account for their comparatively modest payment expectations across several payment types (Fig. 11).
Notably, conditional willingness is more common among younger and middle-aged groups, while those aged 50 and older are more often unconditionally willing to join before discussing additional incentives.