Video and interview with Dmitry Nekrasov

Economist Dmitry Nekrasov examines the state of Russia’s economy, oil revenues, and labor market. Why rising oil prices cannot solve all of the government’s fiscal problems, how attacks on oil refineries affect economic performance, and whether Russia is gradually slipping into stagnation. The discussion also explores whether economic constraints could eventually influence the course of the war.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Dmitry Gudkov discusses divisions within the Russian opposition, controversies surrounding the Russian Democratic Forces platform at PACE, his work and funding, as well as burnout and the everyday challenges of life in exile. The interview also touches on his passion for drumming and his strong support for Israel.

Since late 2025, experts have been predicting large-scale layoffs in Russia due to economic challenges. Reports have emerged about planned staff cuts across various industries and companies — from the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works to Russian Railways. Even government officials are being laid off: after Moscow, similar announcements have been made in the Moscow region. The number of employees working reduced hours or placed on downtime has reached record levels, yet official unemployment remains very low. What does this situation mean? Who will be affected by the new wave of layoffs? And why might this, paradoxically, benefit the state? In a new episode of “What Happened,” Vladislav Gorin speaks with Dmitry Nekrasov, director of the CASE think tank

Viktor Shenderovich, Vadim Klyuvgant, Nikita Smagin, Dmitry Nekrasov discuss with Mikhail Gurevich and Mark Lavi the key developments of the 32nd day of the war with Iran — live from central Tel Aviv

Dmitry Nekrasov. How much longer can Russia’s economy endure? The end of military Keynesianism. If anyone can undermine Russia’s economy, it is the Russian government itself. For business, predictability of policy is crucial.

What is happening with Russia’s economy right now? Internet restrictions are often discussed as a rights issue, but they also have tangible economic effects — we will examine what they are. The central bank has lowered rates, the ruble is fluctuating again, and fuel prices are increasing. Everything seems to be holding, but there is still no real sense of stability.

Where does the idea of unfair wealth distribution come from? Who and why promotes the belief that the rich exploit the poor? What is the real state of social inequality in developed countries, and what are the consequences of misinterpreting it? Economist Dmitry Nekrasov breaks down widespread misconceptions that can lead to conflicts and revolutions.

A live discussion with economist Dmitry Nekrasov on the current state of Russia’s economy at the start of the year. Inflation: actual vs official figures. Decline in oil and gas revenues. Impact of internet restrictions on business and the investment climate. Warning signs from major companies: are bankruptcies possible, will there be enough resources for support, and is there a risk of a domino effect. We will also discuss the decline in trade with China. Russia’s inclusion in an anti-money laundering registry and other key topics.

Today at 18:00, Dmitry Nekrasov will join me as a guest! We will discuss social inequality, where a developed society ends and the rule of the strong begins, and what happens when a society starts living at the expense of its own future. (We will also touch on protest movements in Russia!)

Eating at home. Why the food service sector in Russia is shrinking: “Shokoladnitsa,” “Rostic’s,” “Yakitoriya,” Menza and other outlets. The economy is stagnating but not collapsing.

Official inflation in Russia is 5.7%, observed inflation is 13.3%, but it may feel like 30%. Why can our perception be misleading, and how can we tell whether statistics reflect reality? What will inflation and interest rates be this year, and what factors determine the dollar exchange rate today?

Economist Dmitry Nekrasov offers a balanced forecast for 2026: can Russia’s economy withstand the pressure of military spending and sanctions? We discuss the real ruble exchange rate and China’s role. In this episode: Safety margin: how 20 years of cautious policy created reserves for today’s spending. The ruble paradox: why Western sanctions against oligarchs helped support the Russian currency. The price of aggression: are defense costs of 7–8% of GDP fatal for the budget? The West’s key mistakes: how sanctions against private capital and restrictions on specialists leaving Russia benefited the authorities. The China factor: who is really keeping Russian trade afloat. Watch an in-depth analysis without propaganda or false hopes. Only facts, figures and historical parallels.

An interview with Dmitry Nekrasov — an economist, former member of Dmitry Medvedev’s administration, one of the leaders of the “Right Cause” party, and co-founder of the CASE analytical center in Europe. Nekrasov offers a sober perspective on Russia’s economy: why sanctions (including new ones from Donald Trump) have limited impact, how inert the system is, and he acknowledges the professionalism of the government’s economic team. The discussion also covers politics: views on Trump, the state of the opposition, the role of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, voter sentiment, possible scenarios for a power transition after Vladimir Putin, and the future of right-wing politics in Russia. A candid, no-illusions conversation grounded in deep insider experience.

Russia remains dependent on oil revenues, but what happens if that support disappears? Economist Dmitry Nekrasov, in an interview with Yevgeny Kiselyov, explains why the current model is bound to face crisis, how sanctions work, and how resources are being depleted. Russia’s economy is under growing strain — and the Kremlin will have to choose between internal collapse and accepting defeat. What will ultimately prevail: humanism or strict external governance?

Guest on SotaVision — Dmitry Nekrasov, head of the CASE analytical center. We try to understand what 2025 was like and what the next year may bring. We discuss what is really happening in the global economy and politics — from the US and Europe to Russia, and why familiar explanations no longer work.

Why is the EU likely to confiscate Russian assets? How will drone attacks on the shadow fleet affect the global oil market? What actions will Russia take? What are the main problems in the Russian economy? Why is the ruble so strong and how long can this last?

How did an adviser to President Dmitry Medvedev end up at Bolotnaya Square, and did the opposition have a real chance? What explains the resilience of Russia’s war economy, and what role does Mikhail Mishustin play? Why appear on propaganda shows hosted by Vladimir Solovyov and Olga Skabeyeva, and how difficult is it to win the “Umniki i umnitsy” competition to enter MGIMO? An insightful look into the corridors of power and its opponents — in a conversation between Mikhail Gurevich and Mark Lavi with economist Dmitry Nekrasov

The discussion with Dmitry Nekrasov is built around the CASE report “The Dictator’s Legacy. A New Stagnation.” It clarifies key assumptions of the model (linear factors without force majeure, a possible global slowdown, China-related scenarios), before turning to demographics and the labor market.

Dmitry Nekrasov explains why sanctions are not working, how Russia has adapted to the war, and why Ukraine’s strikes on oil infrastructure change little. In an interview with Sergey Lyubarsky, he explains why the “war economy” is a myth, what will make the US rethink its pressure policy, and how Russia has entered an era of stagnation with no prospects for growth, but no threat of collapse either. A sober, cold, rational analysis of reality — without illusions or propaganda.

What sanctions against Russia could Trump introduce? What impact will new US restrictions have? Why does Russia’s economy face years of stagnation, and how will this affect Russians’ lives? How does the war help the budget reduce its social burden?

This was a live broadcast a few hours before the central bank’s rate decision, and I once again correctly anticipated the regulator’s move :). I also explained the possible reasoning behind it

On what lies ahead for Russia’s economy during and after the war, why a collapse is unlikely but a prolonged stagnation is expected — explains CASE Center director Dmitry Nekrasov. Despite declining budget revenues, slowing growth and stagnation in non-military sectors, the Kremlin continues to pursue its war course and shows no willingness to compromise. With high probability, Russia will enter a new period of stagnation in the coming years — with zero GDP growth, falling real incomes and widening technological lag. At the same time, the priority will remain geopolitical confrontation rather than development. A separate part of the discussion focuses on politics. Why the personal decisions of Vladimir Putin still shape the country’s economic trajectory, how the system of power he built functions, and what consequences his policies may lead to.

What would happen to Russia's economy if the authorities drastically cut spending on war? Can Russia increase its military budget for new wars? How does the government taking business away from entrepreneurs affect the economy? The editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta Europe discussed these and other questions with Dmitry Nekrasov, an economist and director of the CASE think tank.

Air on Insider

The air at Pluschev's. Not only that VAT will be raised to 22%, but also the threshold of income of taxpayers applying the simplified taxation system (USN), when exceeding which arises the obligation to pay VAT, may be reduced from 60 million to 10 million rubles from January 1, 2026. Economist Dmitry Nekrasov explains why these measures are effective, and the possible closure of many small businesses in Russia could also have a positive impact on the economy as a whole.

Airing on Live Nail

The air at Plyushchev's with Dmitry Nekrasov's participation

Airing on Live Nail

An airing based on my article about “Two Misconceptions of the West”. We discuss two big misconceptions of the West: from the belief in “living space” and colonial benefit to the belief that universal “correct” institutions can be painlessly copied anywhere. What went wrong in Iraq and Libya, why to take into account cultural differences and realpolitik, and how it boomerangs back today. And why these mistakes led to the war in Ukraine.

Why Trump and Putin have nothing to negotiate and there can be no favorable economic deal between Russia and the US? Why did Putin meet with economists before flying to Alaska? What sanctions would Russia like to see lifted? Why duties against India do not scare Putin? How will they close the hole in the budget? What will Russia's economy be like without the Internet? Dmitry Nekrasov comments on economic news in the program “Course” with Bogdan Bakaleiko.

The main topic of this issue is Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariff duties on India for continuing to buy Russian oil. We will examine how Delhi will respond to this and whether it will affect India's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war. We will also talk more broadly about tariff policy, economic ties in the world and hidden motives behind such decisions. A separate block is the Russian economy under sanctions. Is there any real effect, how the Russian budget is formed today and what ordinary citizens can expect?

How does the shadow fleet circumvent sanctions? Why don't Western officials care about it? Why did the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina began to defend the strong ruble? Why is it too early to lower the key rate and what can it lead to? Russian officials and economists are sounding the alarm – how dire is the situation?

Dmitry Nekrasov: “Personally Yours” on Echo, which is now Live Nail

Airing on Khodorkovsky Live. Some new topics are touched upon, such as the sustainability of the banking system.

Dmitry Nekrasov: My broadcast on the “Legist” channel. I'm giving the same presentation on inequality as I did in the debate with Friedman, but in more detail with some topics that were not covered in the debate.

In this video, expert Dmitry Nekrasov details why the Russian economy is withstanding the pressure of sanctions and war, and why the predicted collapse is not yet imminent.

I am posting a debate on inequality with V. Friedman. I can't really imagine an audience that would be interested in listening to both me and my opponent at the same time, but maybe. Below is the presentation I put together for the debate, but didn't have time to deliver in its entirety.

Debates about economic statistics are pointless, as significant distortion of data is impossible due to the complexity of coordination and verification. Independent research and diverse sources easily detect discrepancies, highlighting the importance of data accuracy.

In a new interview with economist Dmitry Nekrasov, we look at why the ruble has strengthened. How long will it last? What is better: to buy dollars or put money on deposit? Why mass bankruptcies of companies will help Putin. Should we expect a fall in oil prices?

Why will it be profitable for the government to collapse the ruble if the war ends? What will happen to the ruble and food prices in the near future? How is the high Central Bank rate squeezing the economy? Why will employees of bankrupt enterprises have no choice but to go to war? Why did the Russian Ministry of Economic Development decide to legalize recycling? Economist Dmitry Nekrasov talks about this and much more in an interview with Bogdan Bakaleyko.