Videos

Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev explains what is really happening in Russia’s economy: why the government is unlikely to freeze bank deposits, which risks pose a greater threat to financial stability than the budget deficit, and what factors could ultimately affect the course of the war. The discussion covers rising military spending, the state of public finances, China’s role, and the Kremlin’s long-term calculations.

Economist Dmitry Nekrasov examines the state of Russia’s economy, oil revenues, and labor market. Why rising oil prices cannot solve all of the government’s fiscal problems, how attacks on oil refineries affect economic performance, and whether Russia is gradually slipping into stagnation. The discussion also explores whether economic constraints could eventually influence the course of the war.

Russia’s economy is entering a period of growing turbulence. While the Kremlin continues to project stability, some experts warn of a sharp slowdown and mounting structural challenges. Why a weaker ruble may suit the government, whether a major devaluation is on the horizon, and how global upheavals are reshaping everyday life in Russia — discussed in the latest edition of Main Topic.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Dmitry Gudkov discusses divisions within the Russian opposition, controversies surrounding the Russian Democratic Forces platform at PACE, his work and funding, as well as burnout and the everyday challenges of life in exile. The interview also touches on his passion for drumming and his strong support for Israel.

Since late 2025, experts have been predicting large-scale layoffs in Russia due to economic challenges. Reports have emerged about planned staff cuts across various industries and companies — from the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works to Russian Railways. Even government officials are being laid off: after Moscow, similar announcements have been made in the Moscow region. The number of employees working reduced hours or placed on downtime has reached record levels, yet official unemployment remains very low. What does this situation mean? Who will be affected by the new wave of layoffs? And why might this, paradoxically, benefit the state? In a new episode of “What Happened,” Vladislav Gorin speaks with Dmitry Nekrasov, director of the CASE think tank

At the time of recording (April 15), the United States was not planning to extend the easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports. However, on Friday, April 17, Washington announced a one-month extension. In Deutsche Welle’s Geofactor podcast: Vladislav Inozemtsev, economist and co-founder of the European Centre for Analysis and Strategies (CASE), and Michael Kimmage, an expert at the Kennan Institute.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, economist and co-founder of the European Centre for Analysis and Strategies (CASE), discussed the global economic situation with journalist Yulia Litvinenko. Why have sanctions against Russia had limited impact? How much is the war costing Russia? Is a new wave of industrialization no longer possible? Has Russia’s development reached a dead end? Find the details in this report.

Why are oil prices likely to stay high for a long time, and how much will that support Russia’s budget? Why are strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on ports in the Baltic Sea so effective? How is the Kremlin damaging its own economy? Why are security officials pushing economists out of positions of power? How much could Russia’s economy lose due to internet shutdowns? These and other questions are discussed with economist Vladislav Inozemtsev.

Is a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran a chokehold on the global economy—or the beginning of a green energy transition? Does Ukraine have a Plan B if the European Union continues to block the €90 billion loan?

Our guest is Doctor of Economics and Professor Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev. In 1989, he graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics at Moscow State University and went on to pursue postgraduate studies at the same faculty. From 1989 to 1990, he served as chairman of the university’s Student Scientific Society. In 1991, he was appointed a consultant to the Department of the History and Theory of Socialism at the CPSU Central Committee’s theoretical journal Communist. In 1991–1992, he worked as an expert on economic issues for the “Free Russia” parliamentary faction in the Supreme Soviet of Russia.

Viktor Shenderovich, Vadim Klyuvgant, Nikita Smagin, Dmitry Nekrasov discuss with Mikhail Gurevich and Mark Lavi the key developments of the 32nd day of the war with Iran — live from central Tel Aviv

Dmitry Nekrasov. How much longer can Russia’s economy endure? The end of military Keynesianism. If anyone can undermine Russia’s economy, it is the Russian government itself. For business, predictability of policy is crucial.

What is happening with Russia’s economy right now? Internet restrictions are often discussed as a rights issue, but they also have tangible economic effects — we will examine what they are. The central bank has lowered rates, the ruble is fluctuating again, and fuel prices are increasing. Everything seems to be holding, but there is still no real sense of stability.

How much is Russia earning from the war in Iran? How long would this war need to continue for Russia to significantly reduce its budget deficit? Is Donald Trump’s flexible approach to sanctions an exception, or a sign of a broader policy shift? What changes to the sanctions regime would meaningfully complicate Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine?

In the program “Let’s Discuss,” we go live to cover the most important developments with our guests. Today’s episode is hosted by Olga Tikhomirova of Deutsche Welle, with economist Vladislav Inozemtsev as the guest. Together, they discuss what Russia has gained and lost from the war in the Middle East, whether the hole in the Russian budget is widening, what lies ahead for WhatsApp and Telegram in Russia, and much more.

Marfa Smirnova and Vladislav Inozemtsev discuss how the war in Iran is affecting oil markets and why that matters for the Russian economy. They also look at what’s happening with gas supplies to Europe and how the so-called “shadow fleet” operates. The conversation further covers the growing budget gap, the depletion of the National Wealth Fund of Russia, mounting pressure on businesses, and the outlook for the ruble this year.

Time Frontiers. An interview by Mumin Shakirov with economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, co-founder of the European Centre for Analysis and Strategies (CASE). Russia has become firmly dependent on China’s economy. Moscow is unlikely to be readmitted into Europe and will instead pivot toward the East and other global markets. Funds are running low, but a full-scale collapse is not expected. Vladimir Putin is unlikely to declare a general mobilization or open a second front in the West. Four years into the war: losses and so-called “gains.”

In this video, we speak with economist Vladislav Inozemtsev (co-founder of the CASE Center) and try to assess and explore a phenomenon new to Russian society, dubbed “deathonomics” — the emergence, during the war in Ukraine, of a mercenary force supplementing both conscription and contract-based elements of the army. By the end of 2023, this led to military service becoming one of the highest-paid occupations—something not seen in Russia on such a scale since the late 17th century.

Where does the idea of unfair wealth distribution come from? Who and why promotes the belief that the rich exploit the poor? What is the real state of social inequality in developed countries, and what are the consequences of misinterpreting it? Economist Dmitry Nekrasov breaks down widespread misconceptions that can lead to conflicts and revolutions.

Russia is entering 2026 with a growing budget deficit, an overheated war-driven economy, and rapidly rising debt obligations. How sustainable is the current course? Will there be enough resources to continue the war and maintain social payments? What is happening to Russia’s public debt, who is financing it, and why is the Kremlin increasingly dipping into the pockets of regions and state corporations? Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev joins Yevgeny Kiselyov live on the “Yevgeny Kiselyov” channel for a hard-hitting discussion about money, debt, and the limits of the Russian economy’s resilience.

A live discussion with economist Dmitry Nekrasov on the current state of Russia’s economy at the start of the year. Inflation: actual vs official figures. Decline in oil and gas revenues. Impact of internet restrictions on business and the investment climate. Warning signs from major companies: are bankruptcies possible, will there be enough resources for support, and is there a risk of a domino effect. We will also discuss the decline in trade with China. Russia’s inclusion in an anti-money laundering registry and other key topics.

Today at 18:00, Dmitry Nekrasov will join me as a guest! We will discuss social inequality, where a developed society ends and the rule of the strong begins, and what happens when a society starts living at the expense of its own future. (We will also touch on protest movements in Russia!)

A Russian platform has been established within the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe to conduct dialogue with European politicians on behalf of Russians opposed to the war. The body brings together 15 members, including opposition figures, human rights advocates, public figures, and representatives of Russia’s Indigenous peoples. Farida Kurbangaleyeva spoke with platform member Dmitry Gudkov about how this body will function, why it was created, how it came together, and what its participants expect from it.

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has approved the lineup of the Platform for Russian Democratic Forces. It will serve as a channel for dialogue with European parliamentarians. The platform includes Natalia Arno, Dmitry Gudkov, Mark Feygin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Garry Kasparov, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Oleg Orlov, Andrey Volna, Lyubov Sobol, and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova. Representing Russia’s Indigenous peoples are Ruslan Kutaev, Ekaterina Kuznetsova, Vasily Matenov (Batlay), Lana Pylaeva, and Pavel Sulyandziga. Members of the platform will be able to attend meetings of committees and subcommittees, as well as events held during PACE sessions, and may speak at them with the permission of the chair.

Eating at home. Why the food service sector in Russia is shrinking: “Shokoladnitsa,” “Rostic’s,” “Yakitoriya,” Menza and other outlets. The economy is stagnating but not collapsing.

Official inflation in Russia is 5.7%, observed inflation is 13.3%, but it may feel like 30%. Why can our perception be misleading, and how can we tell whether statistics reflect reality? What will inflation and interest rates be this year, and what factors determine the dollar exchange rate today?

The world is on the brink of sweeping, transformative changes. The shift to the right is here to stay. A regime change in Venezuela could become a model for Russian elites. A discussion with renowned economist and political analyst Vladislav Inozemtsev. The first half focuses on where the world is heading, while the second explores the future of the war and Russia.

Economist Dmitry Nekrasov offers a balanced forecast for 2026: can Russia’s economy withstand the pressure of military spending and sanctions? We discuss the real ruble exchange rate and China’s role. In this episode: Safety margin: how 20 years of cautious policy created reserves for today’s spending. The ruble paradox: why Western sanctions against oligarchs helped support the Russian currency. The price of aggression: are defense costs of 7–8% of GDP fatal for the budget? The West’s key mistakes: how sanctions against private capital and restrictions on specialists leaving Russia benefited the authorities. The China factor: who is really keeping Russian trade afloat. Watch an in-depth analysis without propaganda or false hopes. Only facts, figures and historical parallels.

An interview with Dmitry Nekrasov — an economist, former member of Dmitry Medvedev’s administration, one of the leaders of the “Right Cause” party, and co-founder of the CASE analytical center in Europe. Nekrasov offers a sober perspective on Russia’s economy: why sanctions (including new ones from Donald Trump) have limited impact, how inert the system is, and he acknowledges the professionalism of the government’s economic team. The discussion also covers politics: views on Trump, the state of the opposition, the role of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, voter sentiment, possible scenarios for a power transition after Vladimir Putin, and the future of right-wing politics in Russia. A candid, no-illusions conversation grounded in deep insider experience.

Russia remains dependent on oil revenues, but what happens if that support disappears? Economist Dmitry Nekrasov, in an interview with Yevgeny Kiselyov, explains why the current model is bound to face crisis, how sanctions work, and how resources are being depleted. Russia’s economy is under growing strain — and the Kremlin will have to choose between internal collapse and accepting defeat. What will ultimately prevail: humanism or strict external governance?

Guest on SotaVision — Dmitry Nekrasov, head of the CASE analytical center. We try to understand what 2025 was like and what the next year may bring. We discuss what is really happening in the global economy and politics — from the US and Europe to Russia, and why familiar explanations no longer work.

Why is the EU likely to confiscate Russian assets? How will drone attacks on the shadow fleet affect the global oil market? What actions will Russia take? What are the main problems in the Russian economy? Why is the ruble so strong and how long can this last?

How did an adviser to President Dmitry Medvedev end up at Bolotnaya Square, and did the opposition have a real chance? What explains the resilience of Russia’s war economy, and what role does Mikhail Mishustin play? Why appear on propaganda shows hosted by Vladimir Solovyov and Olga Skabeyeva, and how difficult is it to win the “Umniki i umnitsy” competition to enter MGIMO? An insightful look into the corridors of power and its opponents — in a conversation between Mikhail Gurevich and Mark Lavi with economist Dmitry Nekrasov

The discussion with Dmitry Nekrasov is built around the CASE report “The Dictator’s Legacy. A New Stagnation.” It clarifies key assumptions of the model (linear factors without force majeure, a possible global slowdown, China-related scenarios), before turning to demographics and the labor market.

Dmitry Nekrasov explains why sanctions are not working, how Russia has adapted to the war, and why Ukraine’s strikes on oil infrastructure change little. In an interview with Sergey Lyubarsky, he explains why the “war economy” is a myth, what will make the US rethink its pressure policy, and how Russia has entered an era of stagnation with no prospects for growth, but no threat of collapse either. A sober, cold, rational analysis of reality — without illusions or propaganda.

What sanctions against Russia could Trump introduce? What impact will new US restrictions have? Why does Russia’s economy face years of stagnation, and how will this affect Russians’ lives? How does the war help the budget reduce its social burden?

This was a live broadcast a few hours before the central bank’s rate decision, and I once again correctly anticipated the regulator’s move :). I also explained the possible reasoning behind it

On what lies ahead for Russia’s economy during and after the war, why a collapse is unlikely but a prolonged stagnation is expected — explains CASE Center director Dmitry Nekrasov. Despite declining budget revenues, slowing growth and stagnation in non-military sectors, the Kremlin continues to pursue its war course and shows no willingness to compromise. With high probability, Russia will enter a new period of stagnation in the coming years — with zero GDP growth, falling real incomes and widening technological lag. At the same time, the priority will remain geopolitical confrontation rather than development. A separate part of the discussion focuses on politics. Why the personal decisions of Vladimir Putin still shape the country’s economic trajectory, how the system of power he built functions, and what consequences his policies may lead to.

Dmitry Gudkov, a politician, discusses the creation of a delegation of Russian democratic forces within PACE

What would happen to Russia's economy if the authorities drastically cut spending on war? Can Russia increase its military budget for new wars? How does the government taking business away from entrepreneurs affect the economy? The editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta Europe discussed these and other questions with Dmitry Nekrasov, an economist and director of the CASE think tank.

Nina Khrushcheva, a political analyst, discusses Donald Trump’s peace plan aimed at ending the war between Israel and Hamas Alexander Plushev, a journalist, talks about power outages and fuel shortages across Russian regions Dmitry Gudkov, a politician, comments on the creation of a delegation of Russian democratic forces within the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe

On October 1, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe approved the creation of a Platform for Russian Democratic Forces. It will include representatives of the Russian opposition, though the delegation will not have voting rights. The decision sparked debate on social media over who was included in the Platform, with several well-known political figures notably left out. We spoke with politician Dmitry Gudkov, who played an active role in establishing the body, about how the Platform will operate, why it’s needed, and who will take part.

Air on Insider

The air at Pluschev's. Not only that VAT will be raised to 22%, but also the threshold of income of taxpayers applying the simplified taxation system (USN), when exceeding which arises the obligation to pay VAT, may be reduced from 60 million to 10 million rubles from January 1, 2026. Economist Dmitry Nekrasov explains why these measures are effective, and the possible closure of many small businesses in Russia could also have a positive impact on the economy as a whole.

Airing on Live Nail

The air at Plyushchev's with Dmitry Nekrasov's participation

Airing on Live Nail

An airing based on my article about “Two Misconceptions of the West”. We discuss two big misconceptions of the West: from the belief in “living space” and colonial benefit to the belief that universal “correct” institutions can be painlessly copied anywhere. What went wrong in Iraq and Libya, why to take into account cultural differences and realpolitik, and how it boomerangs back today. And why these mistakes led to the war in Ukraine.

Why Trump and Putin have nothing to negotiate and there can be no favorable economic deal between Russia and the US? Why did Putin meet with economists before flying to Alaska? What sanctions would Russia like to see lifted? Why duties against India do not scare Putin? How will they close the hole in the budget? What will Russia's economy be like without the Internet? Dmitry Nekrasov comments on economic news in the program “Course” with Bogdan Bakaleiko.

The main topic of this issue is Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariff duties on India for continuing to buy Russian oil. We will examine how Delhi will respond to this and whether it will affect India's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war. We will also talk more broadly about tariff policy, economic ties in the world and hidden motives behind such decisions. A separate block is the Russian economy under sanctions. Is there any real effect, how the Russian budget is formed today and what ordinary citizens can expect?

A traditional conversation on the St. Petersburg “Ekho” channel. We went from India to Azerbaijan and from Aivazovsky to Musk. They mainly talked about the crisis of European elites, nuclear blackmail and the style of Trump's “response”. We also made predictions for August 8 and shared our feelings about how the perception of the war in Russia is changing (and what it promises Putin at its next stage).

The new hero of the issue – Gennady Gudkov. He very frankly told what it was like to work in the KGB, the State Duma and remain an honest man. Gennady recalled the missed chances to change the course of history in Russia, about the possible reasons for Putin's offense to Ukraine and shared personal: for example, how to keep the relationship (54 years with his wife – it's no joke!). Stories that would definitely make for a book. As always, we look forward to your comments, likes and other feedback!

The death of former Transport Minister Roman Starovoit, found in the Moscow region on July 7, is primarily attributed to suicide due to potential prosecution. This event highlights the panic among the Russian elite, as the threat of arrest looms over many officials.

How does the shadow fleet circumvent sanctions? Why don't Western officials care about it? Why did the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina began to defend the strong ruble? Why is it too early to lower the key rate and what can it lead to? Russian officials and economists are sounding the alarm – how dire is the situation?

I regularly attend some streams, especially enjoying discussions with Stas Kucher. We talked about the fierce opposition squabbles, surprising sociology insights, and promoted Sergei Aleksashenko's new book, while also deriving a philosophical formula for happiness.

Dmitry Nekrasov: “Personally Yours” on Echo, which is now Live Nail

from 10.30 Special guest – politician Dmitry Gudkov

Airing on Khodorkovsky Live. Some new topics are touched upon, such as the sustainability of the banking system.

Dmitry Nekrasov: My broadcast on the “Legist” channel. I'm giving the same presentation on inequality as I did in the debate with Friedman, but in more detail with some topics that were not covered in the debate.

In this video, expert Dmitry Nekrasov details why the Russian economy is withstanding the pressure of sanctions and war, and why the predicted collapse is not yet imminent.

I participated in a broadcast discussing unlimited strikes inside Russia and summer escalation scenarios. We also covered Dmitry Muratov's "all for all" civilian exchange proposal, the economics of endless war for Putin, and why even Trump can't sell Ukraine's complete surrender to his voters.

Today on Evgeny Kiselev's YouTube channel, there is a good discussion about Russia and Europe, about integration and disintegration, about the past and the future. There is no extremism, name-calling, or insults toward anyone, which is rare in our time. I highly recommend it to everyone.

I am posting a debate on inequality with V. Friedman. I can't really imagine an audience that would be interested in listening to both me and my opponent at the same time, but maybe. Below is the presentation I put together for the debate, but didn't have time to deliver in its entirety.

Debates about economic statistics are pointless, as significant distortion of data is impossible due to the complexity of coordination and verification. Independent research and diverse sources easily detect discrepancies, highlighting the importance of data accuracy.

Our regular monthly stream. This time, we'll be talking about possible timings for a ceasefire, our CASE report on redesigning sanctions, and announcing our next report on options for legalizing Russians who left because of the war (aka “Nansen passports”). Also featuring our spring appeal and my political flashbacks from 20 years ago, Vadim Moshkovich and Kirill Dmitriev, governors' and deputies' salaries, the Zhdanov-Kats debate, and birthday wishes to our beloved Novaya Gazeta.

In a new interview with economist Dmitry Nekrasov, we look at why the ruble has strengthened. How long will it last? What is better: to buy dollars or put money on deposit? Why mass bankruptcies of companies will help Putin. Should we expect a fall in oil prices?

I went for another traditional interview with the Ekhovs. This time they discussed in detail a new CASE study (https://case-center.org/ru/): how large-scale shadow foreign trade Putin has managed to build up during three years of full-scale war and Ukrainian sanctions. And how this affects ordinary Russians and Putin's military prospects (and what advice we have for European politicians responsible for sanctions policy). And finally, a bit about Trump's strategy, the rearmament of Europe, and the future of relocants in the West.

Why will it be profitable for the government to collapse the ruble if the war ends? What will happen to the ruble and food prices in the near future? How is the high Central Bank rate squeezing the economy? Why will employees of bankrupt enterprises have no choice but to go to war? Why did the Russian Ministry of Economic Development decide to legalize recycling? Economist Dmitry Nekrasov talks about this and much more in an interview with Bogdan Bakaleyko.